tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4694505809435969577.post1874479567396263762..comments2023-09-20T11:46:19.647+01:00Comments on M&G Go For A Walk: TGO Challenge Statistical Analysis (Part 5–First Timer Retirees and One-Timers)Gaylehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08648378503343413924noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4694505809435969577.post-48191897830000586952013-01-06T20:47:51.463+00:002013-01-06T20:47:51.463+00:00Excellent!! (Fingers drumming...)Excellent!! (Fingers drumming...)Louisehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05089530928216314797noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4694505809435969577.post-58505187128249514982013-01-06T20:45:03.934+00:002013-01-06T20:45:03.934+00:00I know, at the time I had a reason for stating nin...I know, at the time I had a reason for stating nine years. Now, of course, I've forgotten what it was. Nothing new there then!Louisehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05089530928216314797noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4694505809435969577.post-44361115650456987712013-01-06T20:25:24.358+00:002013-01-06T20:25:24.358+00:00It turns out that Alan was right - I couldn't ...It turns out that Alan was right - I couldn't resist. I've put some numbers together (interesting, too!). Another night I'll generate some graphs to illustrate them.Gaylehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08648378503343413924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4694505809435969577.post-5889501350467102882013-01-06T18:26:21.641+00:002013-01-06T18:26:21.641+00:00Nine years, Louise? Five years is what I'm usi...Nine years, Louise? Five years is what I'm using as the not-coming-back cut off, so 2018 will be when that information is available. Not that I'm saying that I'm going to be getting the data each year and feeding it into the Monster Spread Sheet...Gaylehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08648378503343413924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4694505809435969577.post-61238039198308773982013-01-06T18:24:12.717+00:002013-01-06T18:24:12.717+00:00It's a pity that we don't have weather dat...It's a pity that we don't have weather data to see what patterns emerge. What I know, or we have been told either in comments to these posts or otherwise: 1994 was a dry year with no extremes of weather over the Challenge fortnight, but deep snow was lying over the west coast mountains; 1998 was very hot; 2003 started with bad weather and had another bad spell later; 2007 was dry and hot; 2009 saw a wet first three days, saw four stunning days in the middle and then was quite damp for the rest of it; 2011 was also quite damp, with the tail-end of a hurricane blowing through towards the end; 2012 was wet for the first 9 days, with day 3 being particularly foul and windy, then hot and sunny for the rest. <br /><br />As 2012 saw the highest number of retirees in the history of the event, it will be interesting to look back in 2018 and see how many of 2012's First Timers don't return.Gaylehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08648378503343413924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4694505809435969577.post-68249332853859834692013-01-06T18:16:29.669+00:002013-01-06T18:16:29.669+00:00Name changes have been recorded and are accounted ...Name changes have been recorded and are accounted for in all of the numbers, so there should be no duplication. As the Entry Form asks how many previous Challenges you've done, I would expect that there's little scope for name changes being missed in the raw data.Gaylehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08648378503343413924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4694505809435969577.post-44965257213312991982013-01-06T18:14:22.154+00:002013-01-06T18:14:22.154+00:00Louise - I've got my hands over my ears and I&...Louise - I've got my hands over my ears and I'm going 'La la la'. (Although perhaps it would have been more effective to put my hands over my eyes...)<br /><br />Alan - Eight One Timer Challengers are recorded as having died, of whom three died within five years of having done their only Challenge. With there being 1530 One Timers to date (including those in the 2007-2012 'may come back' category), I don't think that those three will be skewing things too much. In my opinion they wouldn't affect the statistics anyway - they're still One Timers, just not by choice...Gaylehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08648378503343413924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4694505809435969577.post-90080453840205487942013-01-06T14:14:17.132+00:002013-01-06T14:14:17.132+00:00So, in 9 years time, we'll be able to see in G...So, in 9 years time, we'll be able to see in Gayle and Mick's annual graphs if the somewhat dodgy weather has had an effect on last years first timers...Louisehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05089530928216314797noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4694505809435969577.post-17534124960846789912013-01-06T10:57:13.440+00:002013-01-06T10:57:13.440+00:00Gayle. I think I can answer your question about th...Gayle. I think I can answer your question about the 2003 first timers not returning. We had dreadful weather for the first three days of that year: Heavy rain, strong winds and very cold. This was followed by another nasty spell a few days later.<br />So even though there wasn't a particularly high drop out rate, the experience was probably such that the first timers wondered it was worth all the effort?Alan Slomanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17966543499033330765noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4694505809435969577.post-74568642157973444092013-01-05T23:25:42.155+00:002013-01-05T23:25:42.155+00:00Gayle
Very interesting but at the risk of opening...Gayle<br /><br />Very interesting but at the risk of opening up another rabit hole,I wondered what,if any statistical correction you applied to weed out multiple challengers (female I guess) who may have changed their name due to marriage/divorce or whatever.<br /><br />NickFool on the hillshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06513974389551206139noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4694505809435969577.post-39495078998748255482013-01-05T23:02:08.307+00:002013-01-05T23:02:08.307+00:00Louise.
You're a very very naughty girl... You...Louise.<br />You're a very very naughty girl... You know Gayle won't be able to resist...<br /><br />I'm wondering if those Challengers who have died affect the statistics of those doing one Challenge and then not returning...Alan Slomanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17966543499033330765noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4694505809435969577.post-89205580954925746902013-01-05T21:35:57.405+00:002013-01-05T21:35:57.405+00:00All utterly fascinating! Mind you, I'm still c...All utterly fascinating! Mind you, I'm still curious about how solo female Challengers fare.Louisehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05089530928216314797noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4694505809435969577.post-72467538947527798592013-01-05T20:59:58.200+00:002013-01-05T20:59:58.200+00:00I'm just wondering how much of this is weather...I'm just wondering how much of this is weather related, ie. how many first timers got soaked on the first day. we are due an exceptionally dry year (there's optimism) so it will be interesting to see if a high completion percentage goes with a dry warm crossing, enjoy.<br />Cheers J.P.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05313637891388099825noreply@blogger.com